Crash Dash - Watching the AI Bubble Pop
Strategic Surveillance of Overextended Assets
Note: We are tracking the correlation between the US AI giants and their South Korean hardware suppliers. If the memory-chip leaders (Samsung/SK Hynix) lead a downturn, the US software bubble is likely next.
Key Companies: NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), TSMC (NYSE:TSM), Samsung (FRA:XSDG), SK Hynix (FRA:HY9H), AMD (NASDAQ:AMD), Micron (NASDAQ:MU), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Meta (NASDAQ:META), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Oracle (NYSE:ORCL), Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR).
Why we follow: These companies have had ridiculous growth over the last 2 years and account for the majority of AI technologies.
Crash Indicator: If we see a continued sharp downturn in price over 3-10 days with large volumes of people cashing out.
Key Targets: NASDAQ 100 (NASDAQ:QQQ), S&P 500 (AMEX:SPY), ASX 200 (AMEX:EWA), MSCI South Korea (AMEX:EWY), FTSE 100 (BATS:EWU), Nikkei 225 (AMEX:EWJ).
Why we follow: Tracks broader institutional health across multiple jurisdictions to identify systemic risk.
Crash Indicator: If we see a continued sharp downturn in price over 3-10 days with large volumes of people cashing out.
Key Targets: Gold (TVC:GOLD), Silver (TVC:SILVER), Bitcoin (BINANCE:BTCUSDT), USD-EUR (FX_IDC:USDEUR), USD-AUD (FX_IDC:USDAUD), USD TWI (CAPITALCOM:DXY).
Why we follow: Gold/Silver are the bunker; FX tracks larger FX risk across multiple countries and which countries are looking weaker.
Crash Indicator: Rapid flight from risk assets into metals, or a sudden spike in the USD TWI (DXY) indicating a global dollar squeeze.